{"id":4908,"date":"2026-08-31T13:06:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T10:06:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/?p=4908"},"modified":"2026-08-31T13:06:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T10:06:57","slug":"hormuz-and-iran-when-space-narrows-and-calculations-become-complicated-by-samir-yassin-secretary-general-of-the-arab-front-for-the-liberation-of-ahwaz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/?p=4908","title":{"rendered":"\u200eHormuz and Iran: When Space Narrows and Calculations Become Complicated\u200e \u200eBy Samir Yassin \u200e Secretary-General of the Arab Front for the Liberation of Ahwaz"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u200eHormuz and Iran: When Space Narrows and Calculations Become Complicated<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eBy Samir Yassin <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200e Secretary-General of the Arab Front for the Liberation of Ahwaz<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eIn recent weeks, Washington appears to be rearranging its priorities in dealing with Iran. <\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200ePresident Donald Trump’s statement about the possibility of considering the Strait of Hormuz as “part of the territory of the United States” was not just a linguistic departure from the norm, but a signal of a U.S. desire to redefine the rules for dealing with one of the most important strategic areas that Tehran has long considered a power card.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eHormuz is not an ordinary sea passage but an artery for global energy, and any change in its status directly impacts the security of the Arabian Gulf and the international economy.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200e But what is striking today is the context in which this message emerged: the rise of the national security team within the administration and the decline in the weight of the team that was trying to keep the door open to negotiations.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200e The defense minister, the national security adviser, and the secretary of state are back on the scene, with economic tools that are being updated and expanded to include financial transactions, cryptocurrencies, and networks that help Tehran circumvent sanctions.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eThis shift does not mean that Washington is moving towards an open war. Still, it indicates that the US administration has begun to treat the Iranian file as a security crisis rather than a negotiating one. The naval blockade continues, and a new aircraft carrier has arrived in the Arabian Gulf, sending a clear message that the military option has not been withdrawn, even if it is not the preferred option. At the same time, time pressures are mounting as the midterm elections approach, and Congress returns, making it politically costly to keep the Iranian file on hold.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eIran, for its part, faces a more complex equation. Withdrawing from its naval and territorial cards weakens its deterrence capacity, while using it in direct confrontation with Washington carries an enormous cost. <\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eWhat is being tested today is the margin of maneuver of the Iranian occupation, which is narrowed by external pressures and the accumulation of internal crises.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200e Despite the absence of a broad uprising, economic and social pressures are mounting, and the danger lies in their coinciding with the tightening of the external noose.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eRegionally, the Arab Gulf states are moving with careful calculation: Saudi Arabia balances deterrence and dialogue, the UAE handles maritime security with sensitivity, Oman continues to play the role of mediator, and Qatar maintains its channels with Tehran to avoid escalation.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200e Israel, meanwhile, sees the decline of Iranian power as a strategic gain. At the same time, China favors the continued flow of energy, which makes it part of the equation, especially with its upcoming visit to Washington in September, where it will face a tougher U.S. stance on the Strait of Hormuz.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eWhat has changed today is not that war has become inevitable, nor that the fall of the Iranian occupation regime is imminent, but that the room for maneuver is narrowing, and that Washington is raising the ceiling of what it considers acceptable in the\u00a0 Arabian Gulf. The next stage seems to be a dangerous tug-of-war: the United States imposes new rules for deterrence and navigation, the Iranian occupation state tries to preserve its cards without a comprehensive confrontation, and the countries of the region look to pass this stage at the lowest possible cost.<\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eUltimately, the real problem is the cost of each option: escalation comes at a price, retreat comes at a price, and staying in the gray area comes at a price as well. <\/strong>\u200e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u200eAmong these grand calculations, the people pay the price for policy mistakes when the margins for decline narrow.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u200eHormuz and Iran: When Space Narrows and Calculations Become Complicated\u200e \u200eBy Samir Yassin \u200e Secretary-General of the Arab Front for the Liberation of Ahwaz\u200e \u00a0 \u200eIn recent weeks, Washington appears to be rearranging its priorities in dealing with Iran. \u200e \u200ePresident Donald Trump’s statement about the possibility of considering the Strait of Hormuz as “part …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4909,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4908"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4908\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4910,"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4908\/revisions\/4910"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4909"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sawtoroba.com\/Eng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}