Between the Logic of Power and the Transformations of the International System. By Ali Abu Hablah.
Translated from Arabic by Ibrahim Ebeid. March 11/2026 Editor-in-Chief of SAWTOROBA Newspaper
Between the Logic of Power and the Transformations of the International System.
By Ali Abu Hablah.
Translated from Arabic by Ibrahim Ebeid. March 11/2026
Editor-in-Chief of SAWTOROBA Newspaper
The Middle East is witnessing a very sensitive phase in light of the escalation of military tensions and the exchange of missile strikes between regional and international powers, in a scene that reflects profound shifts in the structure of the international system. Current events are no longer just a new round of traditional conflict in the region. Still, they are directly related to the future of global balances and the nature of the international order that is taking shape in the twenty-first century.
In this context, several strategic analysts in the United States offer readings that go beyond the boundaries of the immediate military landscape, including the prominent American military analyst Douglas MacGregor, who believes that the current confrontation may represent a pivotal moment in the history of geopolitical transformations, and may constitute a turning point like American influence in the Middle East and in the structure of the international system as a whole.
Although this reading remains widely debated among experts, it reflects the growing concern within Western think tanks about the repercussions of military escalation in a region that is one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.
First: The Military Dimension and the Shifts in the Balance of Deterrence
Recent military developments point to a gradual shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. Over the past decades, Israel has relied on advanced air defense systems, most notably the Iron Dome, which has proven highly effective at intercepting short-range missiles, as well as other multi-layered systems such as David’s Sling and Heitz.
However, the nature of modern warfare is increasingly moving toward what is known in the military literature as a “missile dumping war,” i.e., the firing of large numbers of low-cost missiles and drones with the aim of overwhelming high-cost air defense systems and complicating their interception capability.
In this context, Iran has worked over the past two decades to develop a diverse missile arsenal, including ballistic missiles, winged missiles, and drones, in an attempt to create an unconventional deterrence equation in the face of Israeli military superiority and the military support provided by the United States to its allies in the region.
However, the assessment of the effectiveness of these capabilities remains a matter of debate among military experts, as the outcome of any large-scale confrontation depends on a complex set of factors, including intelligence superiority, air control, and the ability of multi-layered defense systems to deal with complex threats.
Second: The Economic Dimension and the Sensitivity of Strategic Corridors
The impact of conflicts in the Middle East is not limited to military aspects but also extends directly to the global economy, given the region’s importance as a major source of global energy.
Strategic sea lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal are vital arteries for international trade and energy. Economic estimates suggest that any disruption in these corridors could lead to a rapid rise in oil and gas prices, which will be directly reflected in major economies such as China, India, and other Asian economies that rely on energy imports.
Recent years have also seen a growing trend among some international powers to reduce their reliance on the dollar for trade, a trend supported by countries such as Russia and China as part of broader efforts to reshape the global financial system. However, talk of an imminent collapse of the US financial system is still widely debated among experts, given the depth of the US economy and its central position in the global economic system.
Third: Geopolitical Transformations and the Prospects of Reshaping the Regional Order
Current developments reflect the escalating competition between major powers for influence in the Middle East. While the United States is trying to maintain the alliance system it has established since the end of the Cold War, other international powers are seeking to expand their political and economic presence in the region.
Russia and China have increasingly emerged as players in regional issues, both through their military presence and economic initiatives and major investments.
Some analysts believe that continued military escalation could backfire on U.S. influence in the region, including mounting political pressure within some countries to reconsider the existence of foreign military bases or redefine security partnerships.
At the same time, the escalation of tensions raises real fears that the conflict could spill over into a broader regional confrontation, especially given the region’s multiplicity of open fronts, which could further complicate the strategic landscape.
Fourth: The International Legal Dimension and the Risks of Escalation
From the perspective of international law, any large-scale military escalation in the Middle East raises serious questions about the extent to which the principles of the UN Charter are adhered to, in particular Article 2/4, which prohibits the use of force in international relations except in cases of legitimate self-defense or by a UN Security Council resolution.
Targeting civilian infrastructure or critical facilities may also constitute a violation of international humanitarian law, which imposes clear restrictions on the means and methods of warfare and affirms the principles of distinction and proportionality in military operations.
In light of this, any expansion of military operations could open the door to international legal accountability, given the increasing role of international judicial institutions and human rights organizations in documenting violations of international law related to armed conflict.
Conclusion
Rapid developments in the Middle East indicate that the region is facing a transition that could reshape regional and international power equations. The ongoing conflict is no longer confined to regional competition but has become part of the strategic competition between major powers to shape the new international order.
Between the logic of military power and the requirements of international stability, the greatest challenge for the international community remains to prevent the region from sliding into a comprehensive confrontation whose political, economic, and humanitarian costs may be high for the entire world.
Ultimately, the future of the Middle East will be determined not only by the outcome of military confrontations but also by the ability of international and regional actors to produce new, more stable balances that restore the credibility of diplomacy and international law as framework governing relations between states.
